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Post Post Crisis Era to Continue
We’ve talked about the post-post-crisis era as one that is neither risk-off (a period like the financial crisis, when investors shun riskier assets) nor risk-on (a period like the post-crisis period, which we define from March 2009 through November 2014, when investors embrace riskier assets). In a post-post-crisis landscape, markets have a mixed outlook, in which growth is uneven and interest rates remain low.
The Taper Tantrum vs. the Recent Rise in Yields
In 2013, the “Taper Tantrum” occurred when the market learned that the US Federal Reserve planned to wind down its quantitative easing program — signaling the end of monetary policy easing and the beginning of a shift toward monetary policy tightening. Consequently, Treasury yields rose 100 basis points over two months. The move higher in yields seemed like a reasonable reaction to such signaling.
The recent move in interest rates also makes sense. The market is taking several things into consideration:
1. Uncertainty about the leadership of the Fed. Janet Yellen’s term as chair is due to end in February 2018. Given the Fed’s dovish policy during her tenure, the market is fearful that Trump will appoint a more hawkish leader who is more eager to raise interest rates and reset the tone.
2. Looser fiscal policy. Trump has championed both lower taxes and higher infrastructure spending. These policies, if implemented, would likely boost gross domestic product and increase the federal budget deficit.
3. Higher inflation prospects. Looser fiscal policy should be a tailwind for inflation. In addition, any protectionist policies, such as amending the North American Free Trade Agreement or implementing tariffs, could cause prices to move higher.
Bond Fundamentals Moving Forward
On one hand, lower taxes, fiscal stimulus and deregulation are all positive factors for riskier assets like stocks (and by extension negative for safer assets like Treasuries). But there are still many uncertainties and other factors that provide reasons to be constructive on fixed income:
1. Uncertain geopolitical backdrop. China is currently growing at a reasonably healthy pace, but that has been aided by a rapid expansion in credit.
2. Uncertain U.S. government policy. To paraphrase Aristotle, the market abhors a vacuum. Following the election, many aspects of government policy are in flux, from spending plans to foreign relations.
3. Risk that fiscal stimulus plans miss their target. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center’s analysis of Trump’s income tax plan finds that, while high-income taxpayers would enjoy most of his proposed tax savings, middle-income families would receive an average tax cut of $1,000.
4. Risk of a trade war harming growth. If Trump were to follow through on his proposals to increase tariffs on foreign goods, his actions could spiral into a trade war. This would be negative for U.S. GDP growth.
5. Risk of restrictions on immigration hurting economic growth. One little-known fact is that the growth in GDP per capita has trailed total GDP growth by 40% since the financial crisis.
6. Risk of a shock hitting the economy. External shocks are, by nature, difficult to predict but can have wide-ranging effects.
7. Large number of buyers of U.S. government debt. U.S. and foreign pension funds and insurers use Treasuries as an important component of their portfolios, and this shows no sign of changing.
What This Means for Investors
Although it seems very likely to us that the Fed will raise rates gradually in years to come, expected risk-adjusted returns for investing in bonds remain appealing. Recent volatility in the municipal bond market is beginning to present more opportunities for munis*, while healthier realized inflation makes us continue to be supportive of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
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Five Keys to Investing in 2017
#1: Uncertainty Is a Sure Thing. Keep Calm and Carry On.
When it comes to shock and awe, 2016 delivered. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, turmoil in China’s markets, challenges to globalization — clearly, the world remains an uncertain place.
Swift and dramatic change can inspire powerful emotions and lead to very human, but ultimately destructive, investment decisions. For investors confronted with confusion and uncertainty, the natural temptation is to retreat. “Keep calm and carry on” may be good advice, but for many investors it can be hard to follow.
#2: Diversification Still Matters, So Keep Your Balance.
In the 2008-2009 bear market, diversification didn’t matter. The Great Recession took a toll on nearly every asset class and portfolio. But in the 2000-2002 downturn, diversification worked. If you hadn’t piled into tech, you were spared a lot of pain when the dot-com bubble burst.
The debate over investment diversification is likely to go on and on, but today a strategic allocation in stocks and bonds around the world remains a hallmark of a portfolio that can help investors fulfill their objectives in the long run.
#3: Income is Scarce. Casting a Wide Net Can Pay Dividends.
There are nearly 50 million people over 65 in the United States, and many of them have one thing in common: They want their dividends. Millions of retiring baby boomers need income, but they may have to search far and wide for yield.
#4: Relax, It’s Not All Doom and Gloom.
Take a deep breath. Relax. In an age when doom and gloom seem to be all we read about or see on television, it just might be possible that things aren’t as bad as they seem. In fact, things may just be getting better — and not for the few, but for the many.
#5: Life Happens. Control What You Can With a Long-Range Plan.
Don’t get too high or too low. Try to maintain an even keel. Fight fear with facts.
All of those can be hard to do when the world’s markets and global economy are going through times that can be both exhilarating and frightening. The evidence shows that euphoric investors tend to buy high, and fearful investors sell low.
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Online Info Blog: Avoid scams
The web can be a great place, but not everyone online has good intentions. Here are three simple ways to avoid scammers and stay safe on the web:
Beware of strangers bearing gifts
A message is probably up to no good if it congratulates you for being a website’s millionth visitor, offers a tablet computer or other prize in exchange for completing a survey or promotes quick and easy ways to make money or get a job (“get rich quick working from your home for just two hours a day!”). If someone tells you that you’re a winner and asks you to fill out a form with your personal information don’t be tempted to start filling it out. Even if you don’t hit the “submit” button, you might still be sending your information to scammers if you start putting your data into their forms.
If you see a message from someone that you know that doesn’t seem like them, their account may have been compromised by a cyber criminal who is trying to get money or information from you – so be careful how you respond. Common tactics include asking you to urgently send them money, claiming to be stranded in another country or saying that their phone has been stolen so that they cannot be called. The message may also tell you to click on a link to see a picture, article or video, which actually leads you to a site that might steal your information – so think before you click!
Do your research
When shopping online, research the seller and be wary of suspiciously low prices just like you would if you were buying something at a local shop. Scrutinise online deals that seem too good to be true. No one wants to get tricked into buying fake goods. People who promise normally non-discounted expensive products or services for free or at 90% off probably have malicious intent. If you use Gmail, you may see a warning across the top of your screen if you’re looking at an email that our system says might be a scam – if you see this warning, think twice before responding to that email.
Watch out for scams using the Google brand. Google does not run a lottery. We do not charge training fees for new employees – if you receive an email saying that you have been hired by Google but have to pay a training fee before you can start, it is a scam. Watch out for people claiming to sell cars using Google Wallet. Find out more about various scams using the Google brand.
When in doubt, play it safe
Do you just have a bad feeling about an ad or an offer? Trust your gut! Only click on ads or buy products from sites that are safe, reviewed and trusted.
Many online shopping platforms have trusted merchants/sellers programs. These sellers typically have a visible stamp of approval on their profiles. Make sure that the stamp or certificate is legitimate by reviewing the shopping platforms’ guidelines. If the platform doesn’t offer a similar program, take a look at the number of reviews and the quality of reviews on the seller.
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Online Info Blog: BBB warns about Valentine’s Day scams
Flower Fails
Because of the amount of money that consumers are expected to spend this Valentine’s Day on flowers, consumers can be certain that scammers and unscrupulous businesses will also be looking to benefit. To ensure that a Valentine’s Day bouquet is delivered as planned, follow these scam savvy tips:
- Let the BBB guide purchases. Research trusted florists and gift shops, check out customer reviews, and look for scams at bbb.org.
- Pick up the phone or visit the shop. Even if ordering online, visit or chat with the brick-and-mortar shop prior to making a purchase. Discuss the arrangement you are looking for, inquire about guarantees and ask about delivery times. Don’t make a payment until the order is clearly outlined and always ask for a receipt.
- Watch for unsolicited calls and emails. This time of year, phishing scams spike for those looking to treat loved ones with flowers and gifts. Fake e-cards can carry viruses, and unsolicited emails claiming to require additional funds for gift delivery are common.
Beware of Cupid Cons
The Internet’s ability to connect people through social media and online dating has been a godsend for many single folks. But with that convenience come opportunities for scammers to prey on the love-struck.
This is a common narrative with many Valentine’s Day scams. An interesting stranger builds a fake relationship with an unsuspecting target through phone or video calls, texts and emails. Eventually, the scammer claims to be experiencing a financial hardship — or begs for funds to come visit the love-struck victim. After money is exchanged, the scammer cuts off contact. These types of scams are tricky because scammers know how to make people feel vulnerable and how to get them to do what they want.
How do you avoid a Cupid con? Looking out for the following red flags can help protect both your heart and wallet:
- Your new friend is a constant no-show. Traveling for business, house-sitting for an out-of-state friend, visiting family far away and other last-minute schedule changes are all common excuses scammers use to avoid meeting people face-to-face. An interested girl – or boyfriend would normally want to make time to get to know you better in person. So, if a new love interest is avoiding you, it’s time to get a little suspicious.
- Their social media profiles don’t match, are very new or are nonexistent. Contact information, pictures and background information the person shares with you should match what you see on their social media profiles. A shortage of online friends and contacts, stock photos and spelling/grammatical errors can be clues that you are being wooed by a scammer.
- They ask you for money. Asking for a loan from even the closest of friends can be uncomfortable (not to mention unwise), so why would a new love be boldly asking you for cash? From medical emergencies to claims of being robbed — a romantic scammer isn’t afraid to brazenly beg. Be particularly wary of anyone asking you to send funds via wire transfer or a gift card. And never give money or share banking information with someone that you have not met in person or don’t know very well.
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Online Info Blog: BBB warns about Valentine’s Day scams
Awareness and education are the best line of defense against fraud, and consumers can protect themselves by applying common sense and not letting emotion get in the way. Anyone can fall victim. Fraudsters even coach potential victims to ignore warnings such as this.
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Software update popup on Ubuntu -- open Software Center directly
Update available popup on Ubuntu -- clicking Download opens your website, where I click to download a file, which opens the Software Center. This is a pain. Instead, just open the Software Center directly.
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Sublime iOS - Why isn't it here by now!
Simple one - Why is there not any hint of an iOS version of Sublime Text? Surely in terms of power and iOS SDK capability we could have it working as is on iOS?
An iPhone app would be stupid - but an iPad app with some mobile specific features like Dropbox/Drive support etc would be so awesome
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Git push on clicking Save
I have a git repo on my mac. Whenever I want to test code, i do a git push to my linux dev vm running in the cloud. I'd like sublimetext to automatically do a git push whenever i click save. is there a macro that i can write to do this?
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Request Fiture
I was a developer, to build an application, I always use sublime application.Please mark on the line in the form of color coding, it's easier to find the desired coding.
For example :
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MONEY IS NOT EVERYTHING ... THAT IS OUR BUSINESS NON-PROFIT
Westhill
Know-how for UNICORN
carry out non-profitowy consulting project for the Association of Oncology Support Unicorn, acting on behalf of cancer patients and their support persons. As part of our collaboration will help the Association to build a long-term development strategy. The main challenge for Unicornu is to maintain and optimal use of the resulting beginning of the 2014 years of the Marshal of the Malopolska Region Training Centre "Green Down" . This is a difficult business project, so we decided to support the Association of our know-how. As part of the collaboration board of the Association receives support from us in strategic management and management of current activities and volunteer management. We hope that through the knowledge and experience of our consultants will develop in association "Green Dole" both existing statutory activities as well as new projects. Consultant dedicated to the project is Monika Juśkiewicz.
Noble team Westhill
Like last year joined the Team Noble packages . Through this project, the Christmas season is not only intenstywny, but valuable. Again we find that giving receives more than bestowing!
Project LEGEND!
Westhill Consulting for the third year in a row is a guest at the time of the Polish National Exhibition of Higher Schools. In our lectures involving more than 150 graduates. What a representative of the generation X can say Gen Y? PROJECT LEGEND! very pleased to undertake the conduct of such lectures. And so between us ... Emotions and stress before the audience is larger than the pursuit of strategic workshops for corporate board!
carry out non-profitowy consulting project for the Association of Oncology Support Unicorn, acting on behalf of cancer patients and their support persons. As part of our collaboration will help the Association to build a long-term development strategy. The main challenge for Unicornu is to maintain and optimal use of the resulting beginning of the 2014 years of the Marshal of the Malopolska Region Training Centre "Green Down" . This is a difficult business project, so we decided to support the Association of our know-how. As part of the collaboration board of the Association receives support from us in strategic management and management of current activities and volunteer management. We hope that through the knowledge and experience of our consultants will develop in association "Green Dole" both existing statutory activities as well as new projects. Consultant dedicated to the project is Monika Juśkiewicz.
Noble team Westhill
Like last year joined the Team Noble packages . Through this project, the Christmas season is not only intenstywny, but valuable. Again we find that giving receives more than bestowing!
Project LEGEND!
Westhill Consulting for the third year in a row is a guest at the time of the Polish National Exhibition of Higher Schools. In our lectures involving more than 150 graduates. What a representative of the generation X can say Gen Y? PROJECT LEGEND! very pleased to undertake the conduct of such lectures. And so between us ... Emotions and stress before the audience is larger than the pursuit of strategic workshops for corporate board!
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